This article on the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine trial was published in the New England Journal of Medicine. Six Month Safety and Efficacy of the BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 Vaccine https://www.nejm.org/doi/suppl/10.1056/NEJMoa2110345/suppl_file/nejmoa2110345_appendix.pdf

“So we have 98.5% probability that the 3 excess cardiac arrest deaths were CAUSED by the vaccine

That’s not how p-values work. Instead you should say that there is a 98.5% chance you would see a difference in this large due purely to chance. Subtle difference but it is one that immediately sets alarm bells when reading any statistical analysis.

For two, same calculation. For zero you cannot perform a calculation appropriate for this group. You have to use background cardiac arrest death rate which may not be representative.

Basic question. Why don't you calculate the probability of this outcome and let us know?

Pfizer is a criminal operation.

edited Jan 15, 2022Biden☠️ and Democrats☠️ are COMPLICIT in this Payoff making their lobbying friends in Big Pharma Rich beyond belief $$$$🔥

Absolutely !! They are Traitors more damaging than the Taliban ever has been!!

“So we have 98.5% probability that the 3 excess cardiac arrest deaths were CAUSED by the vaccine

That’s not how p-values work. Instead you should say that there is a 98.5% chance you would see a difference in this large due purely to chance. Subtle difference but it is one that immediately sets alarm bells when reading any statistical analysis.

Please see:

https://vinuarumugham.substack.com/p/the-lady-tasting-tea-vaccines-and

1 in 22000 versus 4 in 2200

98.5 % probability that those 3 deaths were caused by the vaccine.

absolute bullshit.

with total numbers like that the uncertainty is enormous.

No.

https://vinuarumugham.substack.com/p/the-lady-tasting-tea-vaccines-and

really?

what would be the effect if instead of one, two or none had died in the placebo group?

Here I used the same calculation as Pfizer:

https://vinuarumugham.substack.com/p/pfizer-vaccine-trial-shows-saline

For two, same calculation. For zero you cannot perform a calculation appropriate for this group. You have to use background cardiac arrest death rate which may not be representative.

Basic question. Why don't you calculate the probability of this outcome and let us know?

for two same calculation, but other outcome i can assume?

and for 4 deaths in the placebo group?

and if the representative background rate is a given, let's say 4 in 20000.....

edited Jul 25, 2022"for two same calculation, but other outcome i can assume?"

Yes.

"and for 4 deaths in the placebo group?"

Means vaccine made no difference for cardiac arrest deaths.

"and if the representative background rate is a given, let's say 4 in 20000....."

Then this outcome in the placebo group (1 in 20000) is unlikely (~7% chance).

so a change in deaths from 1 to 2 in the placebo group means a rather big difference in the percentage that is the outcome of the calculation.

if there were 975 death or 977 death in the placebo group the difference would be negligible.

0, 1 or 2 deaths in a group of 20.000 has a very big component of pure coincidence.

and calculation of chance based on those numbers is a farce.